“Great state of precariousness”; Dr. Brown on new COVID-19 data modelling
Photo supplied by: Ontario government
It’s a “fragile moment” in Ontario when it comes to the progression of COVID-19 spread. That from Doctor Stein Brown, the dean of the Dalla Lana School of Public Health at the University of Toronto as he presented new provincial data modelling Thursday afternoon.
Brown says the cases have been flattening in many regions of the province but it is too soon to see if there will be a downward trend in the curve of the virus.
However, the numbers shown today did provide a more hopeful picture than the projected caseload two weeks ago.
If the growth of the virus remains stagnant as it has in the past seven days daily new cases will remain at about 1,500 a day through until the end of 2020.
If there is a 1-percent growth that number will rise to just over 2,000 a day.
At a 3-percent growth rate, the number increases to 4,500 a day, and at 5-percent growth that number skyrockets to 9,000 new cases by the end of December.
Health officials say no matter what scenario they present there will be 200 COVID-19 patients in intensive care units in December. Hospitalizations have increased by 63-percent over the last month. The threshold for ICU cases is 150, a number that health officials say was the highest threshold of capacity before surgeries would have to be cancelled. In data revealed Thursday access to care in hospitals continues to lag behind 2019 because of COVID-19.
Deaths continue to rise in long-term care homes with 64 residents dying in the last seven days. However, the number of new cases continues to flatten. Dr. Brown says there will be more deaths in the next few weeks as deaths and hospitalizations tend to lag behind new cases.
Dr. David Williams, Ontario’s Chief Medical Officer of Health, says 64-percent of the province’s cases are in the hotspots of Toronto and Peel Region.